Early sign of a lagging indicator of school quality – River Forest district 90 enrollment below expectations

Amid continued enrollment declines in River Forest district 90, a new trend emerged suggesting students are exiting middle school more frequently.  Roosevelt Middle School class sizes (5^th – 8^th grades) became smaller in 14 of 20 instances between 2020 and 2024 (4 grades x 5 years), a trend that didn’t previously exist.

Peak student enrollment of 1483 occurred in district 90 during 2019 when 673 students attended Roosevelt Middle School, according to the district’s Annual Statement of Affairs. The 2024 filing reported 630 students, and the Enrollment Update at the August 19^th, 2025 board meeting showed 607 students at the beginning of the 25’/26’ school year.

Enrollment exits concentrated in Roosevelt Middle School

In June of each year school districts file an Annual Statement of Affairs report that relates detailed financials to numbers of students and staff, among other costs. Reports are available through 2024 and provide a consistent data source. Those grade-specific enrollment data were used to visualize year over year change in the same cohort of students – raw data on the left, and year over year % change on the right. Tracking a cohort accounts for different initial class sizes.

For example, the 18.4% increase in 1^st grade enrollment in 2011 is based on the number of Kindergarten students in 2010 – Lincoln and Willard Elementaries combined. Numbers in red signify a decline, and the box in the lower right bracket’s years 2020 to 2024 at Roosevelt Middle School with grades 5^th – 8^th. 

While increases and decreases in class size over time are normal, and census data show the population of River Forest grew by almost 10% since 2019, the cohort analysis shows more frequent and variable enrollment exits in middle school beginning in 2020.

Greater context for net student exits from Roosevelt Middle School can be found in two separate reports.

First, a 2017 consultant report to district 90 that includes enrollment numbers from 1990 to 2017.  Table 14 of the report shows a stable and uniform higher rate of net student exits in 8^th grade; however, no period when exits were high among 5 through 8^th grades.   

Second, a district 90 consultant’s 2022 Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections include the conclusions: “The total enrollment at Roosevelt Middle School remains remarkably consistent over the last 8 years (variable of 35 students)”, and “expects the school district enrollment to be slightly less but very steady at about the 1,300 student level”.  The full report might shed more light on how the district arrives at expected enrollment, otherwise these predictions were unreliable.

Middle school exits came up last year at this time.  Listen to how superintendent Ed Condon and then board president Williams dismissed the 7^th grade decline as normal. The two avoided reality, which is lowering academic standards in an affluent neighborhood with plenty of public school alternatives was bound to produce lower enrollment and bound to widen the achievement gap.

Total enrollment below expectations

The documents associated with the Enrollment Update on August 19^th show “Actual Enrollment” declines at each school for the 25’/26’ school year, 42 fewer than the 24’/25’ school year.

Lincoln Elementary 365 students, a decrease of 19 students

Willard Elementary 305 students, a decrease of 13 students

Roosevelt Middle School 607 students, a decrease of 10 students

It is a warning to others – something is wrong when a board member(s) or administrators begin leading schools using lagging indicators of school quality.  Instead of reporting the annual enrollment numbers during the August 19, 2025 Enrollment Update portion of the board agenda, superintendent Ed Condon praised administrators for work scheduling students and referenced “one or two” students enrolling later than usual, saying “those increases will not influence any of our sectioning”.  No mention of lower enrollment across all three buildings, no questions asked. Anyone listening would have been misled. It was another example of what years of bad ideas, a fear-based school culture, and no accountability can do to a person.

Still, the question is where are these students going if not using Roosevelt to prepare for a de-tracked freshmen year at OPRF high school district 200?

What has not been mentioned here? Yes, extended periods of remote teaching were horrible and undoubtedly impacted academic growth and caused some to leave district 90. Temper the tendency to use covid as catch-all for district 90 academic decline.  The evidence is overwhelming that an ideological “lower ceiling” swamped all things remote teaching.  The rapid rebound in English language arts proficiency when Lincoln Elementary teachers defied leadership is an excellent example. Not all teachers are created equal.

E3 reached out for comment. Superintendent Condon stood by his actions not reporting out enrollment numbers at the meeting, and to these ASA data said “we do periodically” look at enrollment trends.  

It is E3 where equity still means fairness.